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    « Brent-crude-price-forecast-2012-2013-2014
    Seek the truth and the truth will set you free. Tell the truth and the truth will set others free.
    - Dr. Peter Achutha, September 2009
    Palm Oil price trend prediction 2012 2013 2014 »

    NYSE Bull Run of 2015

    Is there a Bull Run on the NYSE in 2015? I did the first chart on the NYSE Composite Index, around December 4th 2012. I found an unidentified secondary movement on the NYSE Composite Index. It was for this reason I had not published my NYSE predictions earlier. I am not an expert on the NYSE Composite Index and neither do I have much interest in trying to predict the NYSE Composite Index as the market capitalization is very high. I prefer to analyse smaller stock markets in other countries. Furthermore, I do not know much about the NYSE or its components counters. All in all, I am not an expert on the NYSE.

    For a time I got carried away with my research on the Name of God, YHWH, and its hidden meaning, instead of focusing on NYSE Composite Index charting.

    Having said that, let me show you some of my NYSE predictions. All data used to carry out the NYSE Composite Index predictions occurred before the date of the predictions. That is I am using data before 2009 to predict what happens in 2013 to 2015. All data is based upon once a month samples dated at the end of each month, between 27th to 31st of each month.    



    Interpretation of the first chart NYSE Historical and Predicted Trends


    NYSE Composite Index prediction and Bull Run
    NYSE Composite Index prediction and Bull Run
    NYSE Composite Index prediction and Bull Run
    NYSE Composite Index prediction and Bull Run

    As mentioned earlier, I did the NYSE Composite Index prediction chart around December 4th 2012. You will notice that my predictions show that the NYSE will be in a sideways market for 2012, 2013 and 2014. The actual trend of the NYSE Composite Index from 2009 to 2012, had more of a bounce to it then my historical predictions show. This bounce is the unidentified secondary movement for which I could not trace the origin and I believe it is a transient bounce (as a rubber ball bounces) due to the market crash of 2008 / 2009. I do expect the market to drop to above 7000 at end 2014.

    Actually, most of us would agree that many people have lost interest in the stock markets as a source of investment due to the crash of 2008 / 2009 when they got burnt. I believe that most of that money never got recovered. It is like accidentally holding a hot iron. Once burnt, you do remember for almost a lifetime how much damage a hot iron will do to you hand. Hence the NYSE sideways market until 2014 is not unexpected and should be expected by all - at least a weak retail interest.  



    How to invest in a sideways market.

    I would suggest that potential investors take out their money from the stock markets where it will not grow at any appreciable rate and invest it in land or property. If done in a sensible manner can be more rewarding than any stock market investments as stock market investments are transient and should be timed correctly.

    You could even invest in small businesses where the return on investments can be very much higher than the stock markets. Remember that investing in a small business will always require more cash than you can afford individually. Don’t invest too much into one project or else your exposure may be too high. Pool your funds as a group of investors or professionals and discuss the long term and short term benefits and risks before you invest in a small business – it need not be your own business. Be wary of unscrupulous businessmen who just want your money to act rich and successful and have no intention of giving you a return on investment.

    Let me put it another way. If you buy a million dollars of shares, can you grow wheat, cash crops, rear goats, cattle or pigs on the shares? If you bought a million dollars of land you can do that. Not only will you have capital appreciation on the land but the crops or animals will generate income every year. It is just like investing in a home. You get the capital appreciation if you bought the house really cheap and you get the rental income monthly, every year. If a public listed company closes you have lost everything, your life savings in shares become worthless – remember Enron? But if the economy slows, you still have your land or house to generate income another day.    



    An Adjusted NYSE Composite Index Prediction


    NYSE Composite Index forecast Bull Run
    NYSE Composite Index forecast Bull Run
    NYSE Composite Index forecast Bull Run
    NYSE Composite Index forecast Bull Run

    Today, I managed to adjust the NYSE predictions to take into account the unidentified secondary movement. It looks like this year, 2013, the NYSE stock market is listless, in the doldrums, not going anywhere.

    It appears the unidentified secondary movement on the NYSE Composite Index causes the market to peak in February 2014 at close to 9000. If the unidentified secondary movement is a transient bounce then this peak may not occur. I am pretty sure the NYSE Bull Run of 2015 will occur but I could not get a clear date as to when this NYSE Bull Run will occur. I could easily shift this NYSE Bull Run between January 2015 and December 2015. I tried many times to remove this NYSE Bull Run from my chart but it would not go away. So, I guess I have to call it. The NYSE Bull Run will occur in 2015. This NYSE Bull Run ties in nicely with my gold predictions. Interesting isn’t it.    



    How to invest in the NYSE or other stock exchanges

    There are a few key principles you need to understand, not just for the NYSE but for any stock market in the world. Firstly you have about two to three years to examine and select stocks on the NYSE. That is plenty of time so there is no need to rush out and buy shares tomorrow, after reading this article on the NYSE Bull Run of 2015.  

    1. Company Fundamentals

    Now you will have the time to analyse company fundamentals. Look at their cash flow. Do they have enough to invest in themselves to expand and grow and promote themselves? Cash flow is important. Whether you are a government, a multinational corporation or the corner barber shop or just an employee, without cash flow you cannot do anything. You cannot plan for tomorrow, you cannot commit to projects and you cannot expand your operations. If they cannot do any of these, where are their profits going to come from?

    2. Innovation

    In our modern age, innovation is everything. With innovation you can beat the competition in terms of cost, pricing, quality and usefulness of the products and consumer appeal. Are the companies you plan to invest in have a track record of innovation over the last few years?

    3. Honest board of directors

    Remember Enron? That explains everything. Be wary of companies that keep promising projects in the news media to push their share prices up but never deliver.

    4. What expansion programs do they have

    This is really important coming out of the recession. If they have not been expanding operations just forget them. If they have some plans but not implemented yet, forget them until they implement their plans. If they have no plans then most likely they have no ambition, no motivation and no tolerance for risk. Forget them too as your money will sink in and be lost forever.

    5. Are they issuing dividends regularly

    When you own shares you must collect dividends. Otherwise put your money in the bank or in bonds and earn interest. Simply put, if they are giving dividends every year then you can take a long term view of the company and there is no need keep track of the share price to decide whether to sell or to buy more. Life is easier that way. After all, there are many other fun and enjoyable things to do with your life instead of being glued to the share price screens day in and day out. Enjoy life, for example, take your family out every month for a celebration dinner to thank the Lord God for the blessings you have received for the month.

    Avoid companies that practice some form of tax evasion as the money saved in off shore accounts will not show up in the dividends.  



    What the NYSE Bull Run means

    A Bull Run normally means an economic boom has materialized. There is a simple explanation. People have spare cash to speculate in the stock market. Furthermore, I believe, that the Domestic Demand Infrastructure is still fairly intact. This means that the American economy will be booming by 2015 or earlier. If you do not take advantage of the current Real Economy you will miss the boat, especially if you are a businessman.

    Look at Apple. The have been innovating and improving their products throughout 2008 and 2009 and onward. I can predict their sales and market share is going to grow by 2015 simply because they have maintained their presence and innovation through the hard times. Those businesses who are investing now will reap the rewards and others who wait will miss the boat.

    Just look at Warren Buffet, he is already investing in America. He is seeing opportunities in America while most American businesses are moaning about everything else under the sky.

    Numerous opportunities are going to come in, in quick succession and if American businesses are still talking about double dip, health costs, tax code, fiscal cliff and the Mayan calendar, others are going to take the opportunities and grow. I quote  Ecclesiastes 11:4 "Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap". Sure, problems have to be fixed but don't wait for the fixes as that may take another few more years. We in Asia are going to take every advantage we can get to grow our business because we know for sure that the American businesses are busy focused on non-business related topics. I know, because I am in the process of raising US$10M to start a factory. Please do contact me if you have the funds. This is the best time to do this.

    I guess you have no idea how much money people are going to make in the coming economic boom. Take advantage of the coming NYSE Bull Run.  

    - Dr. Peter Achutha, 3rd January 2013


     


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