Palm Oil price trend can be predicted

I had to correct my original soy bean and palm oil price trend for 2009 to 2012 as my original prediction was done with a simpler method. I have redone the palm oil price trend prediction with the more difficult technique and shown it in the chart above. You can observe how close the prediction is to the actual palm oil price trend. There is an upward shift in the palm oil prices 2010. As long as you understand that such upward pushes are possible you will interpret the charts correctly. Furthermore there seems to be a left shift in the trend in 2012 and 2013. I have tried to correct for this in my next chart.

Corrected palm oil price trend

As you can observe from the chart above Palm Oil prices have shifted upward (jumped state, see my book for explanation) from RM1400 to RM2350. I do not expect it to fall below about RM2350 in 2013. The chart does show that prices will be around this bottom until about April 2013 after which there will be a rally in prices. The palm oil prices can climb quite a bit by 2014.

Basis of Palm Oil data analysis

All my research on the price trend of palm oil price trend is based upon historical data supplied by MetaStock. I have not looked at the news to make any adjustments. And as a result I do hope that my predictions are realistic and useful. I am not an expert on Palm Oil and the closet I have been to palm oil is using it for cooking and trying to sell some palm oil estates. I tell you now so that you do not waste your time, don't bother to try to sell palm oil estates as the deals will be riddled with intermediaries marking up the price and inside parties wanting a huge share of the marked up prices. Almost no one wants to do the deal on a standard 1% to 2% Real Estate Agency fee. So what do you do? Get out of Real Estate. Anyway the palm oil estates and plantations are priced such that the buyer will not make any profits for the next 20 years as all profits go to service the bank loans.

One more palm oil price trend chart

It looks like the January 2013 rally will be a false start unless there is real good news about the Palm Oil production and the world economy. Other then that you can see how the prices crashed following the 2008 US stock market crash. The prices went straight down without any 'technical rebound or correction'. One wonders why prices recovered so soon. Could it be due to demand from India and China? Could it be due to the bio-diesel ventures. From my experience in 2008, almost everyone, in Malaysia, who had money, was talking about bio-diesel and wanting to invest in it. Today, in 2013, there is not even a whiff of bio-diesel anywhere in Malaysia. Investments and speculation are like the fashion industry, here today gone tomorrow. I wonder which way the wind will blow tomorrow?

I would probably make some corrections to this chart in 2014. For all you know the June / July 2013 peak and the October / November 2013 peaks may be a bit higher than shown. This push up of the peaks occurred in 2010 and may repeat themselves again in 2013. We will see when the time comes.

Tell the farmers

Do let the farmers and plantation owners know about the 2013 price rally so that they can earn more profits and plough it back into the Real Economy. Commodity traders won't plough the profits into the Real Economy as they will put it into more speculation to get rich faster.

If you would like to know more about Oil Palm please to check the American Palm Oil website, Malaysia Palm Oil Board and there are many videos to watch on the Malaysian Palm Oil website such as what a oil palm estate looks like.
And lastly before I leave you wondering what I will be predicting next I will let you know that my soy bean and rubber articles are way over due. Look out for them soon.

This article Palm Oil price trend prediction 2012 2013 2014 was researched and written by Peter Achutha, 14th January 2013

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