President Trump infections and the spread of Covid-19 until 2024
Can you imagine that, if there was no lockdown every man, woman and child on earth would be infected by August 2021. That would be in only 14 months' time. Shocking how fast the coronavirus can spread around the world. But I think it is great you are slowly removing the lockdown as the world desparately needs to go back to work.
The Lord God Almighty's words
Isaiah 44:24-26 "This is what the Lord says- your Redeemer, who formed you in the womb: I am the Lord, the Maker of all things, who stretches out the heavens, who spreads out the earth by myself, who foils the signs of false prophets and makes fools of diviners, who overthrows the learning of the wise and turns it into nonsense, who carries out the words of his servants and fulfills the predictions of his messengers, who says of Jerusalem, 'It shall be inhabited,' of the towns of Judah, 'They shall be rebuilt,' and of their ruins, 'I will restore them,'
Ezekiel 34:17-24 "'As for you, my flock, this is what the Sovereign Lord says: I will judge between one sheep and another, and between rams and goats. Is it not enough for you to feed on the good pasture? Must you also trample the rest of your pasture with your feet? Is it not enough for you to drink clear water? Must you also muddy the rest with your feet? Must my flock feed on what you have trampled and drink what you have muddied with your feet? "'Therefore this is what the Sovereign Lord says to them: See, I myself will judge between the fat sheep and the lean sheep. Because you shove with flank and shoulder, butting all the weak sheep with your horns until you have driven them away, I will save my flock, and they will no longer be plundered. I will judge between one sheep and another. I will place over them one shepherd, my servant David, and he will tend them; he will tend them and be their shepherd. I the Lord will be their God, and my servant David will be prince among them. I the Lord have spoken.
The Lord God Almighty will do what the Lord God Almighty will do.
Decisions, decisions, decisions
Correct decision making is very important in our lives especially for those in government or in large corporations as their decisions affect the lives of many people. This is what the Lord was trying to say in the verses above. Do not make decisions out of greed. Make them based on righteousness. Don't equate poverty with laziness as they are two separate problems. When the two are mixed up, faulty policies follow. The Lord God is great and only He is right all the time.
W.H.O. population infected data
I am using W.H.O. data to analyze the events and came out with some interesting conclusions. The data is provided by two websites:- ourwordindata.org and worldometers.info
I then analyzed the first part of the trend and determined what type of function it was. I could not choose an exponential function as an exponential function rose to fast and far exceeded any of the real data provided by W.H.O. A fifth order polynomial equation gave a very close match and the charts below shows the results below.
If we projected these figures further we would see how bad the situation could have been.
The whole world would have been infected by September 2021 if not for the lockdown. The world has avoided a catastrophe.
Now let us look at the second part of the covid-19 trends
Then I tried simulating how many in any family would have been infected for every person detected with the coronavirus. Most Western countries we could assume that there are 4 in a family, 2 parents and 2 children whereas in Asian families there probably be about 7, 2 parents and 5 children. Based on these figures I tried to project the total number of people infected in the world. Of course these are estimates and may not be accurate but at this moment approximations should do. I dread what I am seeing.
Several trends can be determined by how we react to Covid-19
- The lockdown has worked wonders in blocking the spread of Covid-19.
- Without the world wide lockdown everyone on earth would have been infected by September 2021.
- When too many people get infected by the coronavirus, lockdowns, face masks and vaccinations will become useless.
- The information I could not find was the number of people tested for the coronavirus and how many were infected and how many of them had antibodies for the corona virus.
- There is a secondary effect due to the infections and that is the immunity developed in the general population. These are projections and it would be wonderful if anti-body testing shows similar or better results. These people would not need vaccinations especially in third world countries where governments and population cannot afford or access anything. Immunity in the general population may be another explanation as to why the death rates are dropping. That means that another approach to easing the lockdown is to allow those who do not have Covid-19 and have sufficient antibodies to be free to move without restriction provide that they are not carriers of the coronavirus. Good 'presence of antibody' testing becomes very important.
- There is an urgent need for a real cure for Covid-19. See the DailyMail article on death of healthcare staff. I can't believe how they are promoting Remdesivir as some kind of wonder drug when doctors, nurses, emergency staff and other healthcare staff are dying. It would be better for us to pray to God for healing.
- There needs to be an effective alternative for the lockdown as we know that the economy is suffering badly. A real cure would help here as everyone can be free to move, trade, work and prosper knowing a cure is available.
- Dr. Peter Achutha, 7th May 2020
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