Soybean prices commodity chart prediction for day traders and others
I had tried to predict the soybean prices trend even though I do not know much about soybeans. I have never tracked the price movement or the news on soybeans. There are many good articles on the internet on soya bean, soybean oil, soybean prices. This means that the soybean price trend prediction was done blind – purely based upon historical soybean prices. This prediction was done in October 2009 with data earlier than 2009. You will notice that I tried to predict the price trend of soybeans from 2007 until end 2011. This is to give me a feel of whether my predicted trends are reasonable.
Some explanation of my soybean prices chart
I do need to inform you that my prediction charts were created using once a month closing price. That is I took the last closing price for a month to represent that month. This is sufficient pricing information to project price trends many months or many years into the future. Unlike my rapeseed prediction chart I have sorted out the soybean prices data feed and managed to get historical data based upon monthly data. Hence I was able to overlap the actual soybean price trend and the predicted soybean price trend onto one chart.
My soybean prices actual vs prediction commodity chart
An explanation of my soybean commodity chart
You will notice that my predictions show a peak, item 1, in late 2009 even though I did these predictions around that time. Hence, strictly speaking, it would not be considered a prediction but a ‘historical prediction’. That peak in late 2009 gave me the confidence that my prediction that the soybean prices will climb by 2011, item 2. These prediction charts are in my book “Market Theories and Predicting the Stock Market by Visual Inspection” which was first printed in November 2009.
You will notice that there is an upward shift in the soybean prices. That is my original soybean price prediction is lower than actual, item 4. This is probably because Asia was showing strong growth through 2010 and 2011 even though much of the West was facing economic difficulties. How much is contributed to plant oils being used as a potential substitute for petroleum I would not know for sure.
Normalised soybean price chart
You will notice that I had normalized the soybean prices with respect to the price in January 2000. That is the chart shows the soybean price trend relative to the price in January 2000. A price of 2 indicates that the price was twice that of January 2000 and 3 shows that the price was triple January 2000 price. By January 2012 the actual soybean price was triple its January 2000 value.
The main reason I had normalized the price was so that no one would look at the predicted price and base the analysis on the predicted price. I needed readers to look at the shape of the trend and not the actual price. I am not one for predicting actual prices for a certain date but more for predicting the shape of the price trend curve. It appears that when you apply all of my theory, your predicted price can closely reflect the actual price.
Could you have see the 2011 price climb back in 2009?
If you were a day trader you could have taken advantage of the soybean price rally that occurred in 2010 to 2012. You could have avoided trading in soybeans in late 2009 to early 2010 when the market was generally sideways.
I am publishing my charts on my website to show how my original 2009 commodity chart soybean price trend predictions turned out. And I do hope these charts show that commodities are predictable to some degree provided that governments and major players do not try to negate the predictions.
The most important thing about these charts is the general or overall trend which can be used to guide your day trading activity, costing and production planning and other financial activities years in advance.
Looking back after all these years, it is amazing that I managed to predict almost two years into the future considering that the world was in a major recession and no one would believe that soybean prices would climb by 2011.
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This article Soybean prices commodity chart prediction for day traders and others was researched and written on 10th October 2012 by Peter Achutha