Rapeseed price trend useful for day traders and others
I had tried to predict the price trend of rapeseed even though I do not know anything about rapeseed. I have never tracked the price movement or the news on rapeseed. I do not know much about the planting of rapeseed and manufacture of rapeseed oil and related products. I do not know where the main demand comes from and what the competition is or what are the substitute products. So this rapeseed price trend prediction was done blind – purely based upon historical prices. This prediction was done in October 2009 with data earlier than 2009. You will notice that I tried to predict the price trend of rapeseed from 2007 until 2012. This is to give me a feel of whether my prediction trends are reasonable.
I do need to inform you that my prediction charts were created using once a month closing price. That is I took the last closing price for a month to represent that month. This is sufficient pricing information to project price trends many months or many years into the future. The rapeseed price chart generated using weekly data. And this was the reason I could not put both price trends into one chart to make comparison easier. It meant that I could not line up both trends to show if there was a shift to the right or left of the actual price trend when compared to the prediction trend and it makes it difficult to determine where the individual predicted price is close to the actual price.
Rapeseed predicted price price vs actual price trend
Explanation of the rapeseed price trend commodity chart
You will notice that I predicted two peaks in the price of rapeseed. One of which occurred in 2008 and the other was expected to occur in 2012, which is about 2 to 3 years from the date of the prediction. These prediction charts are in my book “ Market Theories and Predicting the Stock Market by Visual Inspection” which was first printed in November 2009.
It appears that the second peak was muted due to the European Recession and austerity measures. Personally, I think that the austerity measures were bad medicine for the European Union. When people take poison they will get sicker. Actually, politicians and economist have to be very careful as to what medicine they prescribe during which period or phase of recession or recovery. Bad medicine is difficult to swallow and has many bad side effects and very few benefits.
You will notice that in October 2009, my rapeseed prediction chart showed that I was expecting the price of rapeseed to reach 500 by 2012. It looks like it did reach that price target.
My prediction techniques
I am not one for predicting actual prices for a certain date but more for predicting the shape of the price trend curve. It appears that when you apply all of my theory, your predicted price can closely reflect the actual price.
Uses of price trend prediction charts
If you were a day trader you could have taken advantage of the rapeseed price rally that occurred in 2010 to 2012. You could have avoided trading in rapeseed in late 2009 to early 2010 when the market was generally sideways.
I am publishing my charts on my website to show how my original 2009 commodity chart price trend predictions turned out. And I do hope these charts to show that commodities are predictable to some degree provided that governments and major players do not try to negate the predictions. Furthermore what the charts do show is the real demand for rapeseed in the European Union has prevented the price from falling in 2012. The price of rapeseed did collapse around November 1998 due to the Asian Financial Crisis. This price collapse, I believe, was due to the sudden devaluations in the South East Asian currencies making oils from these countries ridiculously cheap. Rapeseed prices have been slowly recovering since 1998 and have got back to their pre-1998 price levels.
The most important thing about these charts is the general or overall trend which can be used to guide your day trading activity, costing and production planning and other financial activities years in advance.
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6. Soybean prices commodity chart prediction for day traders and others (10 October 2012)
5. My rapeseed commodity chart prediction useful for day traders and others (17 September 2012)
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-Dr.Peter Achutha, 17th September 2012 by
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