Dr. Peter's Financial Systems Blog
Dr. Peter's Financial Systems Blog
Dr. Peter's Financial Systems Blog
Dr. Peter's Financial Systems Blog
 
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Seventh letter to Malaysian PM


7th letter to PM during 1997 Asian Financial Crisis

The Letter written on 21st August 1998


Dear Datuk Seri Dr. Mahathir,

I had a brief meeting with someone in one of the securities companies and he had asked me a few questions whether I could predict how high the market would climb and the general movement of the KLSE CI. (As he is on leave I am writing this letter). I had decided to reveal the KLSE CI movement based on data up to August 1998. I am unable to accurately predict the actual values but I believe I can predict the trends. The graphs will be self explanatory in that you will see why I cannot predict the actual value of the CI but the shape of the curve only. But before I do this let me show you how some other counters performed from 1992 to 1995. Their predictions are based upon data up to 1992 only.

renong price prediction

h leong prop price prediction

The bulk of my research work has been in attempting to predict the behaviour of the climb as I have no interest in how a stock falls. Hence the prediction research has been, so far, to use data up to 1992 to predict how the stock will fair from 1993 to 1995 and where a comparison of actual share price movement is already known. The solid line is the actual share price movement (forget the squarish box - that's some debugging information) the dotted lines are two types of predictions.

berjaya sports toto price prediction

With the newer technology, just developed and not incorporated into this program, some of these predictions can be improved upon. Here, above, the error is in that the movement is a few months earlier.

Now here is the KLSE CI prediction

KLSE composite index prediction

Don't take the heights of the hills and valleys too seriously as my current system is very spiky. But the timing of the CI movement is about there give or take one or two months. My guess is that you will now understand why it took me six years to get this close a prediction and I still say its not perfect. I do not know how advance knowledge of the CI movement will affect the CI in future. The newer technology shows that the market bottom is in August and a mini-rally up peaking in December 1998. More 'accurate' predictions will be given in a few months time. I am revealing this information so that you and the NEAC can ensure that the economy recovers quickly.

I do admit that land surfacing in the middle of the Pacific Ocean or some big gun sneezing will alter the movement of the share market, but all said and done I still predict the coming bull run in 2000 and I think its about time the stock brokers earned their buck by getting the Bull off it's behind (but don't let there be a stamped for stocks).


Thanks and best regards,

.....
an engineer

This article on the 7th letter to PM was reproduced here by Dr. Peter Achutha - 24 December 2017.


 


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